Musytari : Jurnal Manajemen, Akuntansi, dan Ekonomi

Vol. 19 No. 4 (2025): Musytari : Jurnal Manajemen, Akuntansi, dan Ekonomi
Articles

ANALISIS PENGARUH BALAS JASA PEKERJA TETAP, UPAH PEKERJA KONSTRUKSI, DAN PERTUMBUHAN PRODUKSI INDUSTRI MIKRO DAN KECIL TERHADAP PDB INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ARDL TAHUN 2015–2023

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  • Destifa Prastiti Kusuma,
  • Getruida Sylvia Dewi Wieligmans ,
  • Nadifa Nur Aziza ,
  • Nia Bunga Ramadani
Destifa Prastiti Kusuma
Pembangunan Ekonomi Kewilayahan, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Getruida Sylvia Dewi Wieligmans
Pembangunan Ekonomi Kewilayahan, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Nadifa Nur Aziza
Pembangunan Ekonomi Kewilayahan, Universitas Gadjah Mada
Nia Bunga Ramadani
Pembangunan Ekonomi Kewilayahan, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Published 2025-06-17

Keywords

  • ARDL,
  • Indonesia GDP,
  • Workers' Compensation,
  • Micro and Small Industry,
  • BPS,
  • Quarterly Data,
  • Time Series,
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    • ...More
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How to Cite

ANALISIS PENGARUH BALAS JASA PEKERJA TETAP, UPAH PEKERJA KONSTRUKSI, DAN PERTUMBUHAN PRODUKSI INDUSTRI MIKRO DAN KECIL TERHADAP PDB INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ARDL TAHUN 2015–2023. (2025). Musytari : Jurnal Manajemen, Akuntansi, Dan Ekonomi, 19(4), 81-90. https://doi.org/10.2324/823d1689

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of permanent workers' compensation, construction workers' wages, and production growth of micro and small industries on Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach in the 2015-2023 period. The data used is annual time series data obtained from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). The analysis process begins with a data stationarity test using the first difference method to ensure integration of the appropriate order. Furthermore, Johansen cointegration test was conducted to detect the existence of a long-term relationship between variables. Optimum lag selection is done based on the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value criteria, with the best model obtained in ARDL (4,0,4). The Bound Test cointegration analysis confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables under study. The ARDL model estimation then produces long-run and short-run equations which show that permanent workers' remuneration and production growth of micro and small industries have a significant influence on GDP in the long run. Meanwhile, construction workers' wages show a significant influence in the short run. Assumption tests such as normality, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation tests are conducted to ensure the validity of the model. In addition, the model stability test using the CUSUM test shows that the model is in a stable condition during the observation period. Finally, a forecast of the trend of Indonesia's GDP is conducted based on the model that has been built. The results of this study provide policy implications that improving the welfare of permanent workers and strengthening the micro and small industry sector are key factors in supporting national economic growth.

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