PENGARUH FAKTOR KEUANGAN DAN NON-KEUANGAN TERHADAP FINANCIAL DISTRESS PEMERINTAH DAERAH
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Abstract
This study analyzed the influence of financial and non-financial factors in predicting financial distress among municipal and regency governments in Indonesia during the 2020–2023 period. Financial distress status was measured using the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR), with a minimum threshold of 2.5 as regulated by the government. Financial factors included the carrying value of infrastructure, solvency ratio, and liquidity ratio, while non-financial factors consisted of population size, area size, and government age. A quantitative approach with binary logistic regression was employed, using a purposive sample of 84 local governments. The results showed that infrastructure, population, area size, and government age significantly affected financial distress, while solvency and liquidity ratios were not significant. These findings suggest that territorial characteristics and physical asset values play a more dominant role in explaining fiscal stress than conventional financial ratios.
Keeywords: financial distress; local government; financial factors; non-financial factors; DSCR
Abstrak
Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh faktor keuangan dan non-keuangan dalam memprediksi financial distress pada pemerintah kota/kabupaten di Indonesia selama periode 2020–2023. Status financial distress diukur menggunakan Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) dengan batas minimum 2,5 sesuai regulasi pemerintah. Faktor keuangan mencakup nilai tercatat infrastruktur, rasio solvabilitas, dan rasio likuiditas, sedangkan faktor non-keuangan meliputi jumlah penduduk, luas wilayah, dan umur pemerintahan. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan regresi logistik biner dan melibatkan 84 pemerintah daerah yang dipilih secara purposive. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa infrastruktur, jumlah penduduk, luas wilayah, dan umur pemerintahan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap financial distress, sedangkan rasio solvabilitas dan likuiditas tidak signifikan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa karakteristik wilayah dan nilai aset fisik lebih berperan dalam menjelaskan financial distress dibandingkan rasio keuangan konvensional.
Kata kunci: financial distress; pemerintah daerah; faktor keuangan; faktor non-keuangan; DSCR
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